# GoalOS Value Model - Assumptions and Formula Guide

## Governing value equation

Gross modeled value = expected loss avoided + accelerated benefit + operating savings + validated reusable capability value.

Net modeled value = gross modeled value - GoalOS external fee - internal participation cost.

ROI on total investment = net modeled value / total investment.

Gross value / fee = gross modeled value / external GoalOS fee.

Decision leverage = decision value at stake / external GoalOS fee.

## Use Case 1 - AI Deployment Decision Assurance

- Decision at stake: $6.0M.
- External fee: $75K.
- Internal participation: $25K.
- Cost of material error: $3.2M.
- Baseline / residual error probability: 24% / 12%.
- Annual benefit if safely approved: $2.4M.
- Acceleration: 6 weeks.
- Internal review savings: 420 hours at $190/hour.
- Reusable diligence capability: $60K.

Base result: $801K gross modeled value, $701K net modeled value, 701% ROI, 10.7x gross value / fee.

## Use Case 2 - Board-Level Capital Allocation and Acquisition

- Decision at stake: $30.0M.
- External fee: $150K.
- Internal participation: $50K.
- Cost of value impairment: $8.0M.
- Baseline / residual impairment probability: 20% / 12%.
- Expected negotiation or protection improvement: $525K.
- Annual synergy / option value: $4.0M.
- Acceleration: 10 days.
- Executive and adviser savings: 650 hours at $275/hour.
- Reusable diligence capability: $100K.

Base result: $1.55M gross modeled value, $1.35M net modeled value, 677% ROI, 10.4x gross value / fee.

## Use Case 3 - Three-Customer Commercial Proof Run

- Economic cost of wrong thesis: $1.05M.
- External fee: $100K.
- Internal participation: $25K.
- Probability the proof run passes: 55%.
- Flagship mission price: $60K.
- Mission gross margin: 68%.
- Initial customers / repeat purchases: 3 / 1.
- Recurring customers: 2 at $8K/month for 6 months, 75% recurring gross margin.
- Future missions benefiting from capability: 8.
- Delivery-cost reduction: 20%.
- Monthly GTM burn: $175K.
- Avoided months if falsified: 4.

Base result: $461K probability-weighted gross value, $336K net value, 269% ROI, 4.6x gross value / fee.

## Claim boundary

These are modeled scenarios. Actual value must be supported by a Mission Contract, sponsor-approved assumptions, an Evidence Docket, outcome measurement and independent review where appropriate. A negative decision can create value by preventing further loss. Failed proof must not enter trusted memory or reusable capability.