{
  "name": "Acceleration-Aware Forecasting Protocol Omega",
  "short_name": "FWAA",
  "version": "2.0.0",
  "released": "2026-07-28",
  "canonical_repository": "https://github.com/MontrealAI/forecasting-a-world-that-accelerates",
  "maintainer": "MONTREAL.AI",
  "author": "Vincent Boucher",
  "purpose": "Forecast realized outcomes under changing capability, cost, task duration, automation, reliability, adoption, bottlenecks, and possible regime transitions.",
  "canonical_model": {
    "latex": "Y_s(t)=B_s(t)\\min\\{Q_0\\exp[\\int_0^t g_{Q,s}(u)\\,du],M_s(t)D_s(t)U_s(t)\\}",
    "plain_language": "Realized output is the lesser of technically deliverable capacity and absorptive demand, after residual bottlenecks.",
    "technical_growth_latex": "g_{Q,s}=\\beta_\\theta\\dot\\theta_s-\\beta_c\\dot c_s/c_s-\\beta_\\tau\\dot\\tau_s/\\tau_s+\\beta_A\\dot A_s/(A_s+\\varepsilon)+\\beta_P\\dot P_s/P_s+\\beta_R\\dot R_s/R_s",
    "generalized_realization_latex": "Y_s=B_s^X[\\alpha_s(B_s^QQ_s)^{-\\rho_s}+(1-\\alpha_s)(B_s^ZZ_s)^{-\\rho_s}]^{-1/\\rho_s}",
    "hard_min_limit": "As rho tends to infinity, the generalized family approaches the branch-specific hard minimum."
  },
  "scenarios": [
    "downside",
    "base",
    "accelerated",
    "discontinuous"
  ],
  "required_model_classes": [
    "linear",
    "exponential",
    "accelerating",
    "decaying_acceleration",
    "logistic",
    "change_point"
  ],
  "evidence_grades": {
    "A": "Primary, directly measured, audited, or independently reproducible",
    "B": "Strong independent analysis with transparent data and methods",
    "C": "Indirect, self-reported, survey-based, or incompletely reproducible",
    "D": "Speculative, anecdotal, promotional, or unverifiable",
    "SYNTHETIC": "Generated under declared code, seed, and parameters"
  },
  "status_labels": [
    "observed",
    "derived",
    "estimated",
    "assumed",
    "scenario-conditional"
  ],
  "validation_levels": {
    "L1": "mechanical verification",
    "L2": "controlled mechanism and ablation tests",
    "L3": "source-linked historical demonstrations",
    "L4": "preregistered prospective forecasts",
    "L5": "independent replication",
    "L6": "decision validation"
  },
  "default_recalculation_rule": "min(30 days, 0.1 times forecast horizon), or earlier on forecast break, trigger, or regime change",
  "schemas": {
    "input": "v2/input.schema.json",
    "output": "v2/output.schema.json",
    "registry_record": "v2/registry-record.schema.json",
    "evidence_record": "evidence-record.schema.json",
    "task_graph": "task-graph.schema.json",
    "hindcast_case": "hindcast-case.schema.json",
    "protocol_envelope": "protocol-envelope.schema.json"
  },
  "reference_prompt": "prompt.md",
  "quality_gates": [
    "fresh_evidence",
    "date_disambiguation",
    "comparability_audit",
    "double_counting_audit",
    "realization_parameter_uncertainty",
    "backtest_or_declared_data_limit",
    "probabilistic_scoring",
    "workflow_critical_path",
    "correlated_failure_check",
    "scenario_invalidation_conditions",
    "exact_recalculation_date",
    "source_ledger",
    "prospective_registry_status"
  ]
}