Executive forecast
Base horizon median
85.526
verified missions/month
Base 80% interval
67.644–105.984
Model, residual and scenario uncertainty
Recent annualized pace
71.9%
Log-interpolated six-month window
Recalculate
2026-08-27
Earlier if a trigger fires
Decision implication. Expand reversible capacity and verification now; delay irreversible commitments until the demand and authority triggers confirm the accelerated regime.
Compact Canonical Model
Ys(t) = Bs(t) min { Q0 exp[∫0t gQ,s(u)du], Ms(t)Ds(t)Us(t) }Realized output is limited by technical capacity and absorptive demand, with branch-specific and transfer constraints applied exactly once.
Generalized realization family
Y = BX[ α(BQQ)−ρ + (1−α)(BZZ)−ρ ]−1/ρAs ρ → ∞, the generalized family converges to the compact hard minimum.
Scenario forecast
| Scenario | Probability | Horizon median | 80% interval | Assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 55.0% | 85.526 | 67.644 – 105.984 | Recent progress continues with model uncertainty and current constraints. |
| Accelerated | 22.0% | 121.108 | 98.319 – 147.361 | Task-time compression and parallelism continue improving faster than the base case. |
| Constraint stress | 13.0% | 56.083 | 43.111 – 71.293 | Trust, authority, or infrastructure releases more slowly than expected. |
| Discontinuous | 10.0% | 163.430 | 135.405 – 196.988 | A material share of the improvement loop becomes verified and authorized for autonomous execution. |
Current pace
Current
84.194
6 months ago
64.365
12 months ago
45.926
Log-growth acceleration
-0.256
per year²
Rates use log interpolation at six- and twelve-month anchors.
Model competition
| Model | Converged | AICc | Log RMSE | Horizon prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| accelerating | Yes | -90.606 | 0.017 | 345.807 |
| decaying_acceleration | Yes | -87.384 | 0.017 | 320.146 |
| change_point | Yes | -76.404 | 0.022 | 263.359 |
| exponential | Yes | -45.360 | 0.060 | 197.650 |
| logistic | Yes | -42.103 | 0.060 | 197.650 |
| linear | Yes | 5.090 | 0.227 | 72.617 |
Milestones
| Milestone | Scenario | Probability | Median crossing | Early 10% | Late 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 realized verified missions/month | base | 100.0% | 2027-01-01 | 2026-11-01 | 2027-05-01 |
| 30 realized verified missions/month | accelerated | 100.0% | 2026-12-01 | 2026-10-01 | 2027-02-01 |
| 30 realized verified missions/month | downside | 100.0% | 2027-04-01 | 2026-12-01 | 2027-09-01 |
| 30 realized verified missions/month | discontinuous | 100.0% | 2026-11-01 | 2026-10-01 | 2027-01-01 |
| 50 realized verified missions/month | base | 100.0% | 2027-10-01 | 2027-07-01 | 2028-02-01 |
| 50 realized verified missions/month | accelerated | 100.0% | 2027-06-01 | 2027-04-01 | 2027-09-01 |
| 50 realized verified missions/month | downside | 72.8% | 2028-04-01 | 2027-11-01 | 2028-07-01 |
| 50 realized verified missions/month | discontinuous | 100.0% | 2027-05-01 | 2027-03-01 | 2027-07-01 |
Bottlenecks
| Constraint | Severity | Mechanism | Release condition | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transfer trust and authorization | high | Technically completed work cannot be counted until it is verified, authorized, and accepted. | Transfer factor exceeds 0.85 with no material control failure. | Use proof-carrying outputs, bounded permissions, and pre-agreed acceptance tests. |
| Absorptive demand | moderate | Usable capacity can exceed the number of missions institutions are ready to assign and absorb. | Adoption and utilization grow without a corresponding increase in rejection or rework. | Prioritize high-value bounded workflows and shorten procurement and onboarding. |
Trigger dashboard
| Trigger | Direction | Threshold | Forecast effect | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verified recursive-improvement reproduction | event | Independent reproduction on fresh tasks | Increase discontinuous-regime hazard and shorten milestone dates. | Recalculate immediately; expand reversible compute and experiment capacity. |
| Transfer bottleneck | above | 0.85 | Raise realized output toward technical capacity. | Expand deployment while preserving proof and rollback controls. |
| Observed output versus base interval | crosses | Two consecutive periods outside p80 | Invalidate current calibration. | Freeze irreversible decisions and rerun the complete evidence clock. |
Optimal plan for today’s regime
no regret actions
Instrument every forecast variable and preserve source snapshots.; Increase verification throughput and reusable evidence production.
option preserving actions
Reserve scalable compute and parallel execution capacity without long lock-ins.; Pre-authorize bounded experiments with explicit stop conditions.
next experiment
Run a fresh-task, equal-constraint transfer test with independent replay.
delay pending evidence
Irreversible physical expansion unsupported by current demand.
stop expand pivot
Expand when verified outcomes exceed base p80 and bottlenecks improve; stop on control failure; pivot when demand becomes the active branch.
Evidence ledger
| ID | Evidence | Grade | Measurement date | Publisher |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| controlled-reference-series | FWAA deterministic controlled capacity series v2.0.0 | A | 2026-07-28 | MONTREAL.AI |
Confidence and limitations
Evidence quality score
1.000
Model disagreement
0.518
Base p80 relative width
44.8%
Boundary. Research and decision-support output only. No warranty, assurance, legal, investment, tax, medical, or regulatory advice is provided.
Reproducibility
Input SHA-256
1082e75e3399a62458ed3db84fe73a75fee29fdb1afe0ade185f3d6283ab442b
Seed
20260728
Bootstrap samples
500
Open complete machine-readable result
{
"protocol_version": "2.0.0",
"engine_version": "2.0.0",
"forecast_id": "fwaa-ceiling-reference-2026-07-28",
"generated_at": "2026-07-28T16:00:00+00:00",
"research_cutoff": "2026-07-28T16:00:00+00:00",
"target": {
"question": "How many verified missions per month can this controlled system realize through July 2028 under changing technical capacity, adoption, and bottlenecks?",
"metric": "Realized verified missions per month",
"unit": "verified missions/month",
"scope": "Controlled reference system",
"horizon_end": "2028-07-28",
"target_kind": "flow",
"success_definition": "A mission is counted only after execution, verification, authorization, and acceptance.",
"direction": "higher_is_better"
},
"executive_forecast": {
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"base_horizon_p80": {
"level": 0.8,
"lower": 67.64388255672561,
"upper": 105.98413040852803
},
"decision_implication": "Expand reversible capacity and verification now; delay irreversible commitments until the demand and authority triggers confirm the accelerated regime.",
"validation_status": "Probabilistic reference forecast; not a guarantee or assurance engagement."
},
"observations": [
{
"date": "2022-01-28",
"value": 10.0,
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],
"comparable": true,
"note": "Deterministic controlled capacity series for the end-to-end reference run."
},
{
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"value": 11.1291,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
"evidence": [
{
"id": "controlled-reference-series",
"title": "FWAA deterministic controlled capacity series v2.0.0",
"publisher": "MONTREAL.AI",
"source_url": "https://github.com/MontrealAI/forecasting-a-world-that-accelerates",
"quality_grade": "A",
"measurement_date": "2026-07-28",
"publication_date": "2026-07-28",
"accessed_at": "2026-07-28T12:00:00-04:00",
"primary": true,
"claim": "Controlled mechanism data used to verify the complete forecast pipeline; not evidence about future real-world AI progress.",
"license": "CC BY-NC-SA 4.0",
"sha256": null,
"notes": "Synthetic and deterministic by design."
}
],
"current_pace": {
"anchor_dates": {
"current": "2026-07-28",
"six_months_ago": "2026-01-28",
"twelve_months_ago": "2025-07-28"
},
"anchor_values": {
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"note": "Rates use log interpolation at six- and twelve-month anchors."
},
"compact_canonical_model": {
"equation": "Y_s(t)=B_s(t) min{Q_0 exp[int_0^t g_Q,s(u) du], M_s(t)D_s(t)U_s(t)}",
"technical_growth_equation": "g_Q,s=beta_theta theta_dot-beta_c c_dot/c-beta_tau tau_dot/tau+beta_A A_dot/(A+epsilon)+beta_P P_dot/P+beta_R R_dot/R",
"generalized_family": "Y=B_X[alpha(B_Q Q)^(-rho)+(1-alpha)(B_Z Z)^(-rho)]^(-1/rho); rho->infinity yields the hard minimum.",
"configuration": {
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"input_series_semantics": "technical_capacity",
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"rho": 10.0,
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"confidence": {
"evidence_quality_score": 1.0,
"horizon_log_model_disagreement": 0.518431210824667,
"base_horizon_p80_relative_width": 0.44828921023668894,
"limitations": [
"This reference run uses controlled data and demonstrates mechanics rather than real-world predictive validity.",
"Discontinuity timing is deeply uncertain and constrained by the stated hazard model."
],
"assumptions": [
"The controlled capacity series is positive and comparable.",
"Scenario probabilities are judgmental and must be revised as evidence arrives.",
"The realization-family parameters are structural sensitivity assumptions, not empirically identified causal estimates."
]
},
"recalculation": {
"scheduled_date": "2026-08-27",
"early_triggers": [
"Any material source revision",
"Two observations outside the base 80% interval",
"A verified recursive-improvement event",
"A major authority, regulation, compute, energy, or supply shock"
],
"required_evidence": [
"Latest target observation",
"Updated bottleneck factors",
"Verification failure and rework rates",
"Adoption and utilization measurements",
"Fresh model and task-horizon evidence"
]
},
"reproducibility": {
"input_sha256": "1082e75e3399a62458ed3db84fe73a75fee29fdb1afe0ade185f3d6283ab442b",
"random_seed": 20260728,
"bootstrap_samples_requested": 500,
"bootstrap_samples_successful": 500,
"models": [
"linear",
"exponential",
"accelerating",
"decaying_acceleration",
"logistic",
"change_point"
],
"code_version": "2.0.0"
},
"legal_notice": "Research and decision-support output only. No warranty, assurance, legal, investment, tax, medical, or regulatory advice is provided."
}